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International Air Traffic – The Positives

Today’s Air4casts bulletin reports on some good news for international air travel in August and early September. The data comes directly from the recorded number of daily departing international flights out of the world’s airports.

Dubai: Good News at Last

Daily flight data in the three months from early June to end August indicates a strong increase in the number of international flights departing from Dubai airport.

✓ the early June to end August change is over 400% points

and most importantly

✓ the Dubai government is now publicly optimistic about the airport’s prospects for the rest of the year

✓ suggesting that it could indeed be back to the early 2020 capacity levels before the end of the year.

There is a caveat in that the latest actual Dubai passenger numbers are only for the month of May, with total PAX handled by the airport for that month still well under 45,000, making verification problematical.

There is a further reservation: Dubai’s performance is unique amongst the region’s hubs since Doha data indicates minimal growth in flight departures since June.

Russia

International flight departures from Russian airports in August were more than double those of July:

✓ the driver is clearly holiday travel demand but

✓ as with Europe there are serious concerns that the Q3 into Q4 seasonal downturn will be exaggerated and again

✓ verification is made difficult by the late release of international PAX actuals which presently relate to the month of May for several key Russian airports.

Turkey

Has obviously drawn benefit from tourist inflows throughout the summer season:

✓ from just 10 departing international flights on 1st June Turkey peaked on 29 August with 185 departing flights.

✓ these flight departures still have to be reflected in the airport PAX actuals: IST will declare its August PAX results next week.

Western Europe

Driven in the early part of Q2 by north to south holiday traffic, demand has remained unusually positive in the face of governmental indecision and policy changes:

✓ there are serious concerns about the sustainability of a leisure led recovery into the fourth quarter

✓ Manchester, a quintessential holiday departure airport, has closed a terminal from the beginning of this month.

The USA

The USA is not included in this analysis for the reason that August international PAX actuals for all airports are due for release next week and that release will form the basis for separate reporting.

the author

Jane is the Air4casts CEO. She is an industry expert on data sources in particular. If there's something to know in Travel Retail, she knows it.

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